South Africa faces the possibility of a difficult 2026/27 summer growing season as forecasts indicate a potentially intense El Niño event. At an October 12 meeting convened with the National Agricultural Marketing Council, agricultural stakeholders warned that warmer, drier conditions could affect important summer-rainfall regions, particularly later in the season.

The outlook is not a guarantee that every area will experience drought, and the consequences will depend on rainfall patterns and local conditions. It is nevertheless sufficient reason to examine the country's preparedness before crops and water supplies are threatened.

The warning comes with an important qualification: the agricultural sector is in a more favourable condition than it was before the severe 2015/16 drought. The council reported that water levels in major dams were about 90% on October 5, with grain stocks and soil moisture providing additional protection. Farmers dependent on rainfall cannot necessarily benefit from high dam levels in the same way as irrigated producers, however. A dry spell during a critical growing period can affect planting decisions, grazing, production costs and ultimately agricultural income.

Producers are also exposed to costs that weather forecasts do not capture. Fuel, fertiliser, credit and insurance affect the ability of farmers to prepare for a poor season, and smaller producers can have fewer financial resources available when conditions deteriorate. The council identified access to early warnings, suitable finance, water management and drought-resilient farming methods as priorities. Whether those measures reach vulnerable producers will be an important test of the response.

South Africa's water difficulties cannot be attributed to climate alone. In July, the government released a National Water Action Plan addressing municipal infrastructure, financial management, maintenance and failures in water-service administration. A forecast drought and an unreliable municipal supply are different problems, but poor infrastructure can make the consequences of dry conditions harder for communities to manage. Water security therefore requires both preparation for variable rainfall and effective management of the systems that deliver treated water to households.

No forecast can remove uncertainty, and warning the public should not become an exercise in alarm. The appropriate response is to ask what authorities, producers and water-service institutions are doing while conditions still allow preparation. Emergency measures introduced after crops fail or municipal systems deteriorate are no substitute for maintenance, planning and information provided in time to be useful. The value of an early warning lies in the decisions made before the consequences become visible.